The missing link: Who will fit into Raila Odinga's agitator-cum peacemaker shoes?

One year after the passing of former opposition leader Raila Odinga, the political landscape remains engulfed in a vacuum.

Baba, as he was popularly referred to, shaped the Kenyan democratic scene for the last five decades and his exit from the political scene left a void that neither side of the political divide has managed to fill.

And today, as Kenyans celebrate his first anniversary, navigate economic anxieties and put up with a fractured opposition ahead of the 2027 election, pundits argue that the public is yearning for the style of leadership that only Raila could provide.

A peel back of the layers of recent history reveals that Raila’s unmatched ability to navigate political conflict endeared him to the masses, and emanated from his capability to simultaneously serve as an effective agitator on the streets through mass mobilisation and the ultimate arbiter during state negotiations.

He is deemed the only leader who could proverbially bring the country to its knees through street mobilisation and then, with a single gesture, restore peace through unexpected compromises with the State.

“Raila was the doyen of political emancipation in this country. Raila understood the pragmatic nature of politics. Very many Kenyans expected him not to negotiate with his tormentors, from President Moi to William Ruto. But the way I look at the philosophical underpinning of Raila is that he understood that political competition is about forming government and grabbing power,” says Lawyer and Political analyst Danstan Omari.

Pundits also observe that Raila’s ability to organically attract crowds and hold high-octane and charged rallies in venues such as Jacaranda, Kamukunji and Uhuru Park, where he took on successive governments from that of former President Daniel Moi to the current President William Ruto’s, and his unmatched oratory skills that involved the use of metaphors and proverbs (vitendawili) to get his message across also made him a fan favourite.

 For a man with a checkered past, his legacy is closely intertwined with pivotal historic moments that changed the country’s political trajectory. They include the country’s second liberation, where Raila spearheaded the Sabasaba movement, forcing the repeal of the Constitution’s Section 2A in 1991, leading to the birth of multi-party democracy.

In 2002, Raila also made the “Kibaki Tosha” declaration, where he endorsed his then competitor Mwai Kibaki, which effectively led to the end of KANU’s rule.

In the aftermath of the 2007 elections, Raila led nationwide protests against contested electoral results that declared the then incumbent President Mwai Kibaki as the winner.  Protests erupted across the country after Raila supporters alleged widespread vote rigging and electoral manipulation after Kibaki was hastily sworn in for a second term in office on December 30, 2007.

Mass demonstrations broke out in the former opposition leader’s bastions such as Nairobi, Kisumu, Eldoret, Mombasa, Nakuru, Kericho and Kajiado, forcing the police to crack down on the protesters using tear gas, water cannons and even live ammunition, which only served to escalate the conflict. Soon enough, the political protests quickly morphed into ethnic violence primarily between supporters of Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party and those of Kibaki’s Party of National Unity (PNU).

A report by Amnesty International, a human rights group, recorded that approximately 1,500 were killed and up to 600,000 were internally displaced.

Raila would, however, later make a compromise with State House by signing the National Accord with Mwai Kibaki, where he sacrificed his claim for the Presidency to serve as the Prime Minister in a move that observers say was aimed at healing the nation. The move followed internal mediation efforts led by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

Enter 2017, and Raila was yet again locking horns with a political nemesis, this time former President Uhuru Kenyatta. Their bone of contention stemmed from the disputed 2017 general elections, where the incumbent Uhuru was declared the winner after the August 8 polls.

The opposition, however, rushed to court, citing massive illegalities and irregularities in the Presidential election, including rigging, voter system interference, voter bribery and a compromised IEBC. It also sought to have Odinga, who had campaigned under the National Super Alliance (NASA) declared winner, claiming that Raila had garnered 8.04 million votes against Uhuru’s 7.75 million.

Uhuru had, however, been declared winner with 54 per cent of the vote against Raila’s 45 per cent.

But as fate would have it, the Supreme Court annulled the Presidential election and ordered a repeat election within 60 days. And when it was finally held, the opposition boycotted. Uhuru was again declared the winner and officially sworn in in November 2017.

An agitated opposition would consequently plan and execute the swearing-in of Raila as the “People’s President” before thousands of supporters at Uhuru Park.  The government would later that day respond by shutting down the major independent television stations, with the then interior CS Fred Matiangí declaring NASA’s activist wing, the National Resistance Movement (NRM), an organised criminal group.

Raila would, however, later shock the world after he announced a 2018 handshake with Uhuru Kenyatta- a move that birthed the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI).

Further in the period between 2023 and 2025, Raila led his troops to stage numerous economic protests against the Kenya Kwanza administration, demonstrating against the rising cost of living. But shortly after, in June 2024, youth-led anti-government protests turned violent and saw Parliament invaded following a spate of human rights violations such as abductions; Raila again became an arbiter.

He shepherded his party ODM into a broad-based cooperation framework with President William Ruto, stabilising the government in exchange for governance and Constitutional reforms.

Political observers now aver that whereas Raila was best described as an enigma, he was a statesman through and through.

“Raila was a special statesman because he was the only leader who would give up his interests and personal ambitions for the good of the country, especially when the country was in chaos. He was the only national figure who would interfere and stabilise the country without the need for international mediation. Not many can do that, and that is what the country is going to miss,” says Saboti MP and Renaissance Party leader Caleb Amisi.

“The country should be worried that we are going to have intense, ethnically mobilised elections, not knowing that we have lost the bastion of democracy, Raila Odinga...when there was an imminent revolution against Moi, Raila joined KANU to save Moi from collapse despite the fact the same administration had jailed him for years for his alleged role in the 1982. This is not a character or trait you expect to see from any leader, living or dead.”

Lawyer Danstan Omari observes that whereas there are other leaders who currently wield influence within the local political scene, such as DCP’s Rigathi Gachagua and UDA’s President Ruto, it will take years for them to catch up to Raila.

“Raila was an accomplished actor. He studied his audience; when addressing diplomats, every journalist could get what he was saying. He was eloquent and everybody understood. Similarly, when he was addressing crowds, he knew that slogans, chanting and choice of language mattered and would easily connect him with the crowds...that is why I get worried when I see current politicians on sunroofs dictating policies instead of borrowing a page from Raila’s book,” adds Omari.