The Rise of Sifuna and Babu in the battle for Raila's political legacy

The death of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga in 1994 did more than leave Kenya without one of its most influential opposition figures. It exposed the struggle over who would control the political movement he had helped build, forcing his son, Raila Odinga, to carve out a political identity beyond his father’s shadow.

Three decades later, Raila’s death has reopened a similar question within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), who inherits the political space he occupied, and on whose terms?

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino have emerged as prominent faces of a younger generation seeking to challenge ODM’s established leadership through the Linda Mwananchi movement.

 

Their push comes amid disagreements over the party’s political direction, particularly its cooperation with President William Ruto’s administration, and growing questions about who will shape opposition politics ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Yet the emerging contest is about more than replacing a departed political giant. It is a struggle over whether a new generation can redefine ODM’s politics, reconnect with disillusioned supporters and build an alternative that extends beyond the party’s traditional structures.

The historical parallel with 1994 offers a useful starting point, but the circumstances are different. Raila fought for political space after his father’s death, eventually leaving Ford Kenya to establish his own political vehicle. Sifuna and Babu are attempting to build a new political platform after the departure of a leader whose influence held together a diverse coalition of interests for decades.

The question is whether they can transform the political opening into a durable movement of their own.

Political commentator Herman Manyora argues that Sifuna’s rise has disrupted expectations among politicians who assumed experience and seniority would determine who filled the vacuum left by Raila.

“Politics is the home of illusions. When you are in politics, you sometimes think you are very big. You don’t have a sense of proportion, in terms of reality. You can dream you are bigger than you are,” Manyora said.

He cites the emergence of Sifuna as an example of how public sentiment can overturn established political calculations. Unlike politicians who had spent years positioning themselves for succession, Sifuna’s growing influence was not widely anticipated.

“The emergence of Sifuna has complicated things for many people because this was spontaneous, this was organic. Nobody expected it,” he said.

Manyora argues that  Sifuna’s appeal has partly grown from perceptions that he was unfairly pushed out of a party he helped build. His consistency and willingness to challenge authority have also connected him with young Kenyans whose anger over governance became visible during the 2024 and 2025 protests.

“A bit of that sympathy, his consistency and his ability to speak to power directly are attributes that have made him a darling of the people. When Sifuna speaks, he speaks the language the Gen Z was speaking in 2024 and 2025.”

But the popularity that has elevated Sifuna also complicates Babu’s ambitions. Manyora believes Babu has long sought to succeed Raila politically, and Sifuna’s unexpected rise could unsettle those calculations. Although Babu has publicly supported Sifuna, their different political styles could create tensions within the emerging alliance.

Babu’s combative approach, Manyora warns, risks creating the impression that he is competing with Sifuna rather than complementing him. Such perceptions could undermine a partnership that depends on convincing supporters that the two politicians have agreed on their respective roles.

Political analyst and communications expert Dr Hesbon Owilla sees similarities between the current ODM tensions and the succession battle that followed Jaramogi’s death. In both cases, parties built around dominant personalities struggled to manage leadership transitions, exposing divisions between established leadership and figures demanding a more confrontational political direction.

After Jaramogi died in January 1994, Michael Kijana Wamalwa assumed leadership of Ford Kenya. Raila, then the party’s director of elections, believed he deserved a greater role in determining its direction. His disagreements with Wamalwa eventually pushed him out of the party.

Owilla says a similar divide is emerging in ODM, where Oburu Odinga represents the established leadership while Sifuna and Babu are associated with a more radical challenge to the party’s direction.

However, the political circumstances surrounding the two disputes are significantly different. Ford Kenya was outside government when Raila broke away. ODM, by contrast, is involved in a broad-based arrangement with Ruto’s administration, making a complete departure more costly for politicians who benefit from the existing political structure.

“The cost is extremely high compared to the cost that Baba had to bear.Political parties are formed to form government. Now, if you are inside government, why would you want to go outside to look for that government?” Owilla posed.

The difference also lies in the price Raila was willing to pay. Owilla noted Raila’s departure from Ford Kenya was a decisive break intended to establish a fresh political mandate. Sifuna and his allies, meanwhile, continue to challenge ODM’s leadership while retaining their elected positions and exploring alternative political platforms.

“Raila left out of conviction,” Owilla said, arguing that the emerging faction must demonstrate a similar commitment if it intends to convince voters that its challenge goes beyond internal party disagreements.

For Sifuna, the immediate challenge is converting public enthusiasm into a national political movement. His elevation has been driven partly by voters who feel established politicians no longer speak to their concerns.

But he cautions that the credibility of those surrounding him will determine whether the momentum lasts.

“The Sifuna moment is not a creation of politicians. The Sifuna moment is essentially a moment where the public realised, by the way, this guy speaks our language,” he said.

The danger is that the movement could reproduce the same political habits it claims to oppose. If its leaders surround themselves with politicians perceived as part of the establishment, the appeal of a fresh alternative could weaken.

“You can’t beat President William Ruto by having on your side people who look like President William Ruto,” Owilla said.

The relationship between Sifuna and Babu presents another test. Sifuna has emerged as a possible national presidential contender, while Babu is positioning himself for the Nairobi governorship. Their ambitions may complement each other, but an alliance built around individual popularity could fracture over leadership and competing interests.

“They need to manage the hierarchy. They need to front a formidable alliance that is open and transparent, with the bigger picture in mind,” Owilla said.

He argues that opposition unity cannot rest solely on hostility towards Ruto. Any credible coalition must agree on what it intends to change for citizens, rather than treating the next election as a contest to remove the incumbent.

“You cannot be united because you have a common enemy for a country that you seek to lead. You’ve got to be united because you have an agenda for the people,” he said.

Linda Mwananchi could nevertheless offer a route for retaining part of Raila’s national constituency, particularly voters dissatisfied with ODM’s cooperation with the government. Owilla describes it as a possible extension of ODM’s original political appeal beyond the party’s current structures, rather than an automatic replacement for the organisation Raila built.

But history offers no guarantee that Sifuna and Babu will replicate Raila’s success. The opening created by his death is real, yet translating it into lasting political influence will require organisation, a coherent agenda and the willingness to withstand the costs of challenging established power.

The contest is therefore not simply about who inherits Raila’s supporters. It is about whether his political legacy can survive without his personal authority holding competing interests together.