Israel-Iran war spells new world order

First responders walk outside a heavily-damaged building at the site of an Iranian missile attack in Ramat Gan in central Israel near Tel Aviv, on June 19, 2025. [AFP]

Two countries with names starting with the same letter—Israel and Iran—are archenemies.

Where did this enmity come from, and why are they fighting now?

What’s the end game? The exchange of missiles and drones between the two countries has set the Artificial Intelligence world on fire with fake videos.

The enmity between the two countries has many stakeholders. This increases the potential of sucking in more players and widening the conflagration. Emotions are high among supporters of both sides. 

Curiously, the two countries are not immediate neighbours, separated by Jordan, Syria and Iraq. That is why drones and missiles are the weapons of choice.

The two countries were allies until the fall of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah or the king of Iran, in 1979, who was replaced by Ayatollah Khomeini. 

That started a cascade of events that set the two countries apart, it seems irreversibly. The US-Iran enmity deepened during the hostage crisis, after the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Some believe the crisis played a role in making democrats lose power in the US in 1980.

A coup in Iran in 1953 is said to have Western hand and planted the first seeds of enmity between Iran and Westerners. And oil was definitely a factor. 

The new Iranian rulers wasted no time expanding their influence in the region, using proxies. The invasion of Lebanon by Israel in 1982 provided the perfect opportunity, and Iran sent its elite fighters to help. Out of that, Hezbollah was born.

Then, Hamas came to the scene in 1987, with its origins in the establishment of Israel in 1948. Its aim, like Hezbollah, is to liberate Palestine.

Hamas won power in 2005, taking over Gaza while the Fatah faction held the West Bank. Palestinians occupy the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

Is the missile exchange between Israel and Iran seen in light of defending Palestine? Remember images from Gaza after the Israeli bombings?

With all these resistance groups allied against Israel with the support of Iran, the enmity is easy to explain and extend. Add Houthis in Yemen and Islamic resistance in Iraq.

Beyond using proxies, Iran is said to be developing a nuclear bomb. Tehran denies this, saying it’s for peaceful use.

That allegation of building a nuclear bomb has been there for a long time, with Israel bombing Iran’s nuclear reactors in 1981.  

Recall your high school physics; the same uranium used to generate power through nuclear reactors is used to make nuclear bombs with enough enrichment, which is nothing but increasing the percentage of uranium 235. Remember the periodic table? 

That’s why claims by Iran that their nuclear research is for peaceful use are contentious. The conflict between Israel and Iran reminds me of the Gulf War in 1991 and allegations that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. 

Israel and the US fear the nightmare scenario if Iran acquired a nuclear bomb. Who would be the target?  Some say Iran has incentives to acquire such a bomb, for pride and security. They argue persuasively that with nukes, no one can dare attack North Korea.

Why the war now, although it has not been declared yet? Hamas and Hezbollah have been degraded by Israel’s invasion since Hamas breached Israel’s borders and took some hostages.

Syria is relatively peaceful, and Israel feels confident enough to attack Iran, now that its home is also “safe.”

Iran is hitting back. Its oil and expertise in drones have emboldened it to stand up against the US and Israel.

Some drones used in Ukraine are from Iran. With a long history, Iran sees itself as a civilisation, and is exportable to other countries. Has anyone noted the rising number of research papers from Iran? The night skies over Israel and Iran are lit by missiles, anti-missiles and drones. This “far away” conflict, closer to movies than reality, is further fueled by each country’s pride and its leaders.

The killing of nuclear scientists in Iran was hair-raising. Remember the US looking for German scientists in the closing days of World War II? Do we appreciate brains in our country that much? Allies are likely to join the conflict, most likely indirectly. Israel has the US, while Iran has no such explicit allies beyond the proxies in the Middle East.

But the Ukraine war points to its allies. They will offer weapons and logistical support. Whose airspace are the Israeli planes flying over, and what’s the end game?

The nightmare scenario is other allies joining each side to prolong the conflict. Most historians will say that sounds familiar. What role would Russia and China play?  

There are unintended consequences in this conflict, with oil prices rising with the disruption of the supply chains, more so through the Strait of Hormuz, another choke point like Bab el-Mandeb by the Red Sea.

Higher oil prices will be felt by everyone, including Kenya. This has political consequences. 

Oil producers like Russia or Nigeria will celebrate. When shall we start exporting our oil?

Another unintended consequence of the Iran-Israeli conflict is a distraction from the Russia-Ukraine war. Will the US and its allies focus on Iran or Ukraine? Russia would love this distraction. The end game, like any other, is remaking the world order. America would love to maintain its leadership and influence across the globe.

Russia and China are becoming challengers in both geopolitics and economics. The order has often been remade through negotiations with the threat of war.

When negotiations fail, war results.

Unfortunately, few wars go as expected. Remember the Mau Mau war dragging on for seven years?

Iran wants to be a dominant power in the Middle East and beyond, just like Israel. The contest for power and influence will continue; it’s part of human nature. 

The spectre of Iran having a nuclear bomb and hence dominance is anathema to Israel and its allies.

The urge to dominate shall even extend into space and wherever humanity has presence.

One wishes the Iran-Israel war would end soon. The world has enough troubles, even here at home. From economic hard times to unexplained deaths, we all want peace and tranquillity.  

Until the two countries sue for peace, urged on by their allies, the rest of us can only watch, wait and hope. What role can Kenya play in making peace in the Middle East?