Battle for Nairobi exposes cracks in opposition unity

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino during an interview with The Standard on October 1, 2026. [Collins Oduor, Standard]

Nairobi is increasingly becoming a battleground for competing political interests ahead of the 2027 General Election, with shifting party loyalties, rival ambitions and the growing influence of new political movements threatening to reshape the contest for City Hall.

Governor Johnson Sakaja’s decision to abandon the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has added another layer of uncertainty to an already crowded race, exposing divisions within the party while leaving both political formations with difficult electoral calculations.

Although Sakaja is the sitting governor, his entry into ODM should not automatically be interpreted as a major electoral gain for the party. His political standing has weakened considerably, with his support base having dwindled from the political capital he commanded when he first captured City Hall in 2022.

His move therefore presents ODM with a difficult gamble: whether the advantages of having an incumbent governor outweigh the risk of admitting a politician whose support among Nairobi voters has come under pressure.

Sakaja formally joined ODM on Monday at Chungwa House in Nairobi, where he was received by senior party officials led by SG Catherine Omanyo and Deputy Party Leader Simba Arati. His move followed his appearance at the party’s Jacaranda rally over the weekend, where he declared his intention to seek re-election on the ODM ticket.

The governor attributed his decision to the influence of the late Raila Odinga, saying the former ODM leader had personally encouraged him to join the party.

“If Baba was here today, and he is the one who told me to join ODM, he said that Nairobi should remain bold and we will do everything to ensure that is present in ODM,” Sakaja said.

He also sought to reassure party members that his arrival was not intended to displace existing aspirants.

“I am not joining ODM to take anyone’s space or replace anybody. I am joining to take my rightful position,” he said.

But his arrival has immediately complicated ODM’s internal succession plans. Makadara MP George Aladwa had already declared his interest in the gubernatorial seat and built a campaign around his ambition to become the party’s flag-bearer.

The hostility surrounding the two camps was evident during Sakaja’s reception, where some supporters chanted ‘No Aladwa, No ODM’, signalling that the governor’s entry is unlikely to be a smooth transition.

Sakaja said he was willing to engage Aladwa over the nomination contest, but the party faces the task of convincing its grassroots supporters that the process will be fair. Arati promised that all aspirants would have an opportunity, saying, “We will give everyone an opportunity, and our nominations will be free and fair.”

For Aladwa, the contest is not simply about competing against another aspirant. It is also a test of whether years of party loyalty and grassroots mobilisation will count for more than the political convenience of admitting a sitting governor seeking a second term.

The challenge is even bigger for ODM. The party must manage the rivalry without alienating either camp, at a time when its traditional influence in Nairobi is facing competition from emerging political forces.

The party’s difficulties are compounded by the growing influence of the Linda Mwananchi movement, which is challenging ODM’s claim to Nairobi’s traditional urban support base. Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, who is aligned with the movement, intends to contest the governor’s seat through The Mwananchi Party (TMP), his own political vehicle.

Babu has made it clear that his decision to establish a party was driven by his belief that ODM would not give him an opportunity to contest for the Nairobi governorship.

“At that particular moment, I knew that things would be different. I decided from that day that ODM would never give me a chance to contest as governor of Nairobi. So, at that particular moment, I decided that I would have my own political party,” he said.

He has also defended his leadership credentials by pointing to his record in Embakasi East, arguing that his experience managing a constituency can be translated into county leadership.

“So long as you can be given the responsibility of managing a constituency and you do it well, then it’s only fair that you can manage a county also fairly well,” Babu said.

He has framed his campaign around service delivery, arguing that Nairobi residents want practical solutions to the problems affecting their daily lives. “Nairobi people are just looking for service,” he said.

Babu’s position makes the Nairobi contest more complicated for ODM. The movement is not seeking to cooperate with the party over the governor’s seat; it is advancing a separate political project and challenging ODM’s claim to the city’s electorate.

The situation also exposes the contradictions within the wider United Opposition. At the national level, opposition leaders have spoken of the need to unite behind a common candidate to challenge President William Ruto. In Nairobi, however, their competing gubernatorial ambitions are testing the limits of that unity.

DCP has positioned Embakasi North MP James Gakuya as its candidate, while Wiper is also expected to field a contender. Babu is pursuing his own bid through TMP, while Kasarani MP Ronald Karauri has also expressed interest in the seat.

Gakuya has made it clear that he will not surrender his ambition simply to accommodate coalition negotiations. He has vowed to run as an independent candidate if he is denied the DCP ticket.

“I cannot abandon my bid for the governorship,” he said, adding that if denied the party ticket, “I will pursue it even if that means becoming an independent candidate.”

He has also questioned the logic of coalition negotiations extending to county-level positions, arguing that aspirants should be allowed to compete for those seats.

“When people talk about coalitions, they should discuss the top seats but leave the lower seats for the candidates to compete for themselves,” Gakuya said.

His position illustrates the challenge facing opposition leaders seeking to coordinate their campaigns. Even within parties that share a national objective, individual candidates are unwilling to give up their local ambitions.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who leads DCP, has identified the capital as a major battleground for the party.

He previously declared, “The competition in Nairobi is among DCP, Wiper and Linda Mwananchi. Luckily, we are on the same side.”

But being on the same side nationally does not resolve the question of who gets to contest the governor’s seat. With Gakuya and Babu both maintaining their ambitions, the possibility of multiple candidates from opposition-aligned formations remains a major complication.

The race also leaves UDA with a difficult calculation. Having lost the incumbent governor to ODM, the ruling party must consider how to defend its presence in the capital and whether it has a candidate capable of mounting a credible challenge.

Sakaja’s departure removes a sitting governor from UDA’s political equation at a time when the party is seeking to consolidate support ahead of 2027. His move also illustrates the complications of the broad-based government arrangement, in which ODM and UDA may cooperate nationally while competing for elective positions at the county level.

Despite joining ODM, Sakaja reaffirmed his support for President Ruto, saying he would continue backing him from within the opposition party.

“We will support Ruto, mimi nitazidi kumshikilia mkono and I will support him from ODM,” he said.

The political irony is difficult to ignore. In 2022, ODM and its Azimio allies backed Polycarp Igathe against Sakaja, who ran on a UDA ticket and won the governorship. Four years later, the same governor is seeking a second term through the party that once campaigned to remove him from office.

But changing party colours does not necessarily change a politician’s electoral fortunes. Sakaja must convince Nairobi voters that he can recover lost ground, while ODM must establish whether his entry strengthens its position or merely intensifies divisions within its ranks.

Beyond party manoeuvres, the eventual contest will be shaped by the record of the county government. Nairobi residents continue to grapple with concerns over garbage collection, traffic congestion, urban planning, infrastructure and the delivery of essential services. These issues will test the candidates’ ability to offer more than political alliances and campaign promises.

With 17 constituencies and 85 wards, Nairobi is not an electoral prize that can be secured through party endorsements alone. Candidates will need to build support across its diverse communities, address residents’ everyday concerns and demonstrate that they understand the demands of governing a complex capital city.

Sakaja’s ODM switch has therefore not settled the political contest. Instead, it has exposed divisions within ODM, left UDA searching for a new strategy and added to the uncertainty surrounding the opposition’s Nairobi campaign. More significantly, it has brought into focus a contest in which party loyalties, individual ambitions and questions of service delivery are likely to shape the battle for City Hall.

For ODM, the question is no longer simply whether Sakaja or Aladwa should carry its flag. It is whether the party can retain its influence in Nairobi as new political movements challenge its traditional support base, and for the wider opposition, the capital could become a test of whether national unity can survive the competing ambitions of local politics.