Betraying Baba: Raila Odinga's unfinished reforms caught in Ruto-ODM power gamble

The celebrations to mark the first anniversary of the late Raila Odinga’s death may have begun in pomp and colour, honouring the life of an influential man who moved Kenya several steps towards democracy. However, his achievements are rapidly being eroded as his former allies and government operatives push back against democratic ideals just a year after his death.

Observers believe the country has failed Raila, arguing that the first anniversary comes amid great uncertainty as his former ally, President William Ruto, and factions within ODM entertain what they describe as brazen constitutional violations.

The anniversary has turned into a tug-of-war between a section of ODM leaders, who are believed to be using the event to build their own political support, and the family, which is organising parallel activities.

Raila’s words of counsel and passionate calls for the country to respect the Constitution, made a few months before his death last year, now feel like a distant memory.

The troops he built and nurtured as fierce defenders of the Constitution, alongside a government with which he had entered into a partnership before his death, have seemingly turned their backs on constitutionalism. This has raised questions about the state of the democratic gains he fought for over decades, particularly freedom of assembly, freedom of expression and press freedom.

Raila’s political career was closely tied to Kenya’s struggle for multiparty democracy, constitutional reform, and greater political freedoms.

But with the country heading towards the 2027 General Election, some of his former allies and political activists say the space for dissent is narrowing. They point to disruptions of political meetings, confrontations involving protesters and opposition supporters, and concerns over the treatment of journalists.

Critics believe greed, personal interests, and an appetite for absolute power have eroded much of the progress the late leader fought to achieve. In the year since Raila was buried, political violence attributed to intolerance has reportedly increased in Nyanza and Western Kenya. Goons, some allegedly sponsored by the State, are having a field day as the government implements strategies that critics say are aimed at undermining freedoms and rights for which Kenyans struggled.

Recently, as Kenyans from all walks of life gathered at various venues for candle-lighting ceremonies as part of the events lined up to mark his first anniversary, media freedom came under attack when groups described as state-sponsored goons gathered at the Standard Group to protest against the media house.

The company, critics and Kenyans of goodwill described the move as an affront to press freedom and an insult to the late ODM leader, whom they regard as a staunch crusader for press freedom and democracy.

Yesterday, several observers described the erosion of democratic ideals over the past year as appalling, warning that the country could be headed in the wrong direction if the trend continues.

“Raila never got a replacement. He was a counterweight to the excesses of the Government. Without him, the democratic space has shrunk, and I fear the guardrails of freedom are being removed and replaced by the long shadow of fear,” says Prof XN Iraki of the University of Nairobi.

For some, the attack on the Standard Group marked a new low for the government. They said Raila would probably be turning in his grave in disappointment over the continued erosion of the rights and freedoms for which he endured sweat, detention, blood and tears.

“Raila would be turning in his grave if he heard about the incident witnessed at the Standard headquarters yesterday. He was one person who believed that even when everybody could not side with him, the media stood with him. Raila was always quoting that famous principle: ‘I may disagree with what you say, but I will defend your right to say it, even if you are saying it against me,” argues communication consultant Samuel Owida.

In the same week that the anniversary activities began, two recent victims of abduction, Boniface Mulinge Muteti and Collins Otieno, were still nursing the effects of torture. The two were among human rights defenders arrested in Nairobi’s Central Business District on September 21, 2026, during demonstrations calling for the release of Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye.

The erosion of democratic ideals, critics argue, has also spread to Raila’s own ODM party, where the lieutenants he left behind have presided over the emergence of new political parties and movements from the party’s ranks.

The list includes presidential hopeful Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi and Siaya Governor James Orengo, among others. They have been associated with efforts to challenge the direction of ODM, sometimes amid what they describe as violent resistance from party supporters to their attempts to exercise their freedom of assembly.

The group that has broken away from ODM’s main camp has accused Raila’s former allies in the party of attempting to frustrate its members’ democratic right to hold rallies in areas considered the late leader’s former strongholds. The group claims its members have faced violence whenever they have tried to promote alternative political views in those areas.

Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, who served as ODM deputy party leader before being removed from the position, says he and other leaders associated with the Linda Mwananchi movement have experienced what they describe as attempts to disrupt their political meetings in parts of the country, including Homa Bay, Kakamega and Vihiga.

Early this year, during a Linda Mwananchi mobilisation drive in Western Kenya, Osotsi said attempts to frustrate their meetings would not stop them from exercising their constitutional rights.

The leaders argue that the right to assemble should not depend on whether those gathering support or oppose the government.

“We all knew when Raila was alive that the protection of Article 37 of the Constitution, which guarantees every person the right to assemble, demonstrate, picket and present petitions peacefully and unarmed, was supreme,” said Osotsi.

Former ODM Vihiga branch secretary Davelson Muruli has left the party and aligned himself with the Linda Mwananchi movement.  He says his decision was informed by what he describes as a departure from the ideals that originally attracted him and other supporters to ODM.

“Democratic spaces have shrunk in the nation since Raila’s death. We are even targeting some of us who work in Vihiga County Government because we support the Linda Mwananchi faction,” Muruli said.

For Muruli and other former ODM officials, the political shift is also about what they consider the need to preserve Raila’s democratic ideals.

But the debate extends beyond political parties and movements to the wider question of press freedom.

Mwibona MCA Zakayo Manyasa has raised concerns over what he describes as growing pressure on journalists and the media. He argues that weakening the media’s ability to scrutinise those in power also undermines the public’s ability to hold leaders accountable.

“You look at the wider scrutiny of Kenya’s media and civic environment, with international and local rights organisations reporting cases involving journalists, activists and government critics being abducted,” said Manyasa.

Concerns have also been raised about media independence and freedom of political expression, with critics pointing to developments including the arrests of government critics and restrictions affecting people who express sensitive political views.

In June this year, rights organisations criticised police roadblocks, arrests and restrictions during Gen Z memorial protests, arguing that such measures violated constitutional protections for peaceful assembly and association.

Security agencies, meanwhile, have maintained that their responsibility is to protect lives and property and ensure that political gatherings and demonstrations remain peaceful.

The competing positions have renewed scrutiny of whether the balance between public order and constitutional freedoms is being maintained.

Lawyer and political analyst Moses Ombayo says Raila’s legacy should not be measured only by the parties and alliances that emerge after his death, but also by the institutions and freedoms associated with the political struggles in which he participated.

“Raila was a central figure in Kenya’s agitation for multiparty democracy and later played a significant role in the constitutional reform process that culminated in the 2010 Constitution. His legacy should be upheld,” notes Ombayo.

The government and its supporters have maintained that political freedoms must be exercised within the law and that security agencies have a duty to prevent violence and protect public order.

Observers, however, are pessimistic, arguing that the government and ODM are turning their backs on their commitments to protect democratic ideals.

“Kenya has certainly deteriorated in terms of democratic rights and freedoms, as well as the enjoyment of our constitutional rights. Raila was a giant defender of people’s rights and freedoms, even while he was cooperating with Ruto. He always had a countermeasure up his sleeve in case the Government of the day went overboard in its excesses. But after his exit, Ruto and his colleagues found it easier to capture those who remained in charge of ODM because of what I consider their greed and lack of principles,” says Joseph Simekha, a political strategist and governance expert.