What ODM must do to avert looming voter apathy

ODM leaders Simba Arati, Gladys Wanga and Hassan Joho at the Jacaranda rally on October 31, 2026. [Bernard Orwongo, Standard]

The Orange Democratic Movement may be looking in the wrong direction as it prepares for the 2027 General Election. The party’s greatest threat is not UDA, former Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna or the Linda Mwananchi movement. It is the hundreds of thousands of voters who may have quietly lost faith in the party and could choose to stay at home on election day.

ODM must confront an uncomfortable reality: political influence in government means little if the party can no longer mobilise its traditional supporters to vote. Without credible internal reforms, transparent nominations and a compelling political identity, the party risks presiding over gradual erosion of its own electoral base.

ODM remains a formidable party with historical support in Luo Nyanza, Western Kenya, the Coast and other parts of the country. Its leaders are therefore justified in demanding respect and equitable treatment from their UDA counterparts under the broad-based government arrangement. But political recognition and electoral relevance are two different things.

The warning signs are already visible. The 2022 polls should have served as a wake-up call. National voter turnout fell from approximately 79 per cent in 2017 to 66 per cent in 2022. More significantly, the four Luo Nyanza counties of Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori had approximately 675,000 registered voters who did not cast ballots in the presidential election. This represented a substantial pool of disengaged voters in what has traditionally been ODM's most dependable electoral territory.

Participation was also relatively subdued in Western Kenya. Kakamega and Vihiga recorded approximately 60 per cent turnout, Bungoma 64 per cent and Busia 67 per cent. At the Coast, research examining the election also identified a significant decline in participation compared with 2017.

These numbers should worry ODM more than political disagreements within its ranks. A party can retain considerable popularity among active voters and still suffer an electoral disaster when a growing proportion of its traditional supporters withdraws from the democratic process.

Sifuna and Linda Mwananchi are not the existential threat. ODM should not confuse internal political contestation with an existential crisis. Edwin Sifuna and the Linda Mwananchi movement may challenge the party's leadership, messaging and political direction. They may attract sections of its youthful support and expose disagreements within its ranks.

But these developments should not frighten a party with ODM's historical reach and organisational experience. Political movements are constantly challenged by dissenting voices, emerging leaders and competing interpretations of their ideological direction. A confident and democratic party should accommodate such contestation, debating its differences and renewing its leadership. The real danger is allowing the disagreements to distract the leadership from the electorate.

ODM should be more concerned about a voter in Kisumu, Migori, Kakamega or Mombasa who no longer sees a reason to vote than a politician who openly questions its leadership. A politician can be challenged, replaced or reconciled with. Winning back hundreds of thousands of disillusioned voters requires considerably more work.

Internal democracy must be restored. One of ODM's persistent weaknesses has been the management of party nominations. Complaints about direct tickets, political interference, opaque processes and the perceived favouring of particular candidates have repeatedly created resentment.

Unfairly sidelined aspirants do not always leave alone. They take with them campaign teams, community networks and supporters. Others remain in the party but quietly withdraw their participation. ODM must establish transparent, independently supervised nomination processes, with clear criteria for direct tickets and timely resolution of disputes. It cannot demand democratic respect from UDA while denying its own members the same principles.

The party must also rebuild its grassroots machinery. Ward-level structures, polling-station agents, youth mobilisation teams and constituency organisers should be active long before election campaigns begin. Historical loyalty is not a substitute for organised voter mobilisation.

-The writer is a communications consultant.