To tackle insecurity and prosper, Somalia needs political renewal

Somalia needs political renewal to restore stability and defeat Al-Shabaab. [Courtesy]

Somalia stands at a critical crossroads. Political disputes over constitutional amendments, electoral arrangements, mandates, and the distribution of power continue while Al-Shabaab exploits divisions within the state. Despite decades of political transitions, familiar leaders, alliances, and power brokers repeatedly return to the centre of national politics, often without changing the methods that have kept the country fragile.

Somalia does not need change for its own sake, nor does youth automatically guarantee competence. It needs political renewal: Leaders with integrity, administrative ability, national vision, and independence from entrenched patronage networks. The central question is no longer simply who should lead Somalia, but whether the country can build institutions that serve citizens rather than competing political interests.

Somalia’s aspiration to move beyond an indirect, clan-based electoral system and establish universal suffrage is legitimate. A permanent constitution could clarify government powers and strengthen national institutions. However, constitutional reform cannot succeed through legal procedures alone. It also requires broad political agreement and public confidence.

When federal member states, opposition groups, and other political constituencies reject the process, constitutional changes risk becoming another source of conflict. The opposition must also accept responsibility: Many established opposition figures have previously held high office and have sometimes defended consensus only when their own interests were threatened.

Neither the government nor the opposition can resolve this crisis through accusations and political manoeuvring. Somalia needs a negotiated electoral compact that establishes a credible timetable, guarantees participation by federal member states, protects political freedoms, and provides independent mechanisms for resolving disputes.

Somalia’s international partners—including the United States, Türkiye, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, the European Union, and neighbouring countries—have important security, economic, and diplomatic interests in the country. Their assistance can support stability, but it can also unintentionally encourage political competition when benefits depend on relationships with particular leaders.

Foreign governments should not select Somalia’s leaders. Instead, they should support transparent rules, inclusive dialogue, credible elections, and accountable institutions. Long-standing relationships with familiar politicians should not be mistaken for evidence of public legitimacy.

Somalia’s sovereignty will be strengthened when international partnerships support national institutions and long-term development rather than temporary political arrangements.

Al-Shabaab is not merely a military threat. Its influence is sustained through intimidation, illegal taxation, intelligence networks, propaganda, and exploitation of local grievances. Military operations can weaken the group, but lasting security requires effective administration, justice, economic opportunity, and public trust.

Holding major cities while leaving rural communities without reliable services or legitimate government cannot secure the entire country. Security forces must remain professional and answerable to constitutional institutions rather than individual politicians. Federal and regional forces need better coordination, while liberated areas require rapid access to public services, livelihoods, and fair justice.

Political renewal alone will not defeat Al-Shabaab. It must be accompanied by capable institutions, continuity of experienced personnel, civilian oversight, reconciliation, and sustained investment in communities.

Somalia should open its political system to qualified leaders from business, universities, civil society, professional institutions, and the diaspora. Women and young people must receive meaningful opportunities to exercise authority rather than serve as symbolic representatives.

However, new leaders must demonstrate competence and integrity. They should disclose their finances and political donors, build cross-clan coalitions, respect agreed electoral rules, defend federal cooperation, and resist undue external influence. They must also explain how territories recovered from Al-Shabaab will be governed and how public services will reach their populations.

Experienced politicians need not disappear from public life. Former presidents, prime ministers, and senior officials can contribute as advisers, mentors, and guarantors of peaceful political transitions without monopolising future leadership.

Somalia’s greatest danger is not necessarily sudden collapse, but gradual erosion: Weakening rural administration, insecure roads, recurring attacks, divided security forces, declining public confidence, and growing dependence on external support.

The consequences would extend beyond Somalia, threatening regional stability, trade, maritime security, and the interests of international partners.

The country needs a political agreement that prevents unilateral extensions of mandates, ensures federal participation, protects opposition and media freedoms, and establishes impartial electoral dispute resolution. Security reform must advance alongside political reform, with transparent military payrolls, accountable command structures, and safeguards against using national forces in domestic political disputes.

Somalia has significant strengths: A resilient business community, a powerful diaspora, active civil society, and a population that has repeatedly demonstrated determination to rebuild its country.

The challenge is to transform these strengths into a legitimate, capable, and inclusive state. Political renewal is not about age or replacing one personality with another. It is about changing how power is acquired, exercised, and held accountable.

Somalia does not need another saviour. It needs a wider field of capable, principled public servants—and the courage to allow a new generation to lead.