For clear spending picture, we should ask hard questions on budget votes

Leading into the 2025 Budget Statement on Thursday, let us acknowledge the recent work of the National Treasury to actively engage with the public and stakeholders on the budget process.  

Were lessons learnt from the 2024 Finance Bill protests? Because it wasn’t just the Bill, Kenyans want a free socio-economy in which to perform, and service-focused government where they can hold leaders to account.  Accountability isn’t just for elections, but between them in a way that encourages every Kenyan’s civic participation and protects their freedom of expression 

What nobody wants from government’s engagement is a PR telenovela, or “lipstick on a pig”! 

As predicted, we are all allocating more time to consider the Finance Bill than the overall budget. That is, the Finance Bill rather than the overall revenue estimates. But also with spending, where we focus on individual transaction highlights, like State House renovations, not overall spending. 

For spending, of course, one must reckon with six main budget books which for 2025/26 add up to an intimidating 4,488 pages of tabulated data! Notably, the only popular, or people-friendly, summary of these budget books comes after, not before, the Budget Statement is presented. 

Let’s experiment with a snapshot of the top 25 votes in the national government budget approved by the National Assembly’s Budget and Appropriations Committee (BAC) last week. We use BAC’s programme-based budget (PBB) summaries as well as actual PBBs available for each vote. These 25 budget votes add up to Sh2.181 trillion, or 86 per cent of the national government budget of Sh2.538 trillion in a Sh4.280 trillion budget which includes debt interest of Sh1.097 trillion and county allocations of Sh405 billion. What results are we buying with this money? 

At Sh387.2 billion, Teachers Service Commission is the number one vote. Sh376.8 billion of this is pure payroll, and their programme-based results emphasize training. It is impossible to confirm political announcements about teacher recruitment in the budget, but this is our policy-planning-budgeting-results disconnect – we like to budget in figures without planning for the people. 

Defence at Sh213.3 billion is the second largest vote. Almost all of this budget is a lump sum allocation to the actual military under national defence and protection, civil aid (to humanitarian activities) and defence industry (including national space agency) programs.  Their program-based results emphasize capacity to deliver on the first two and a commercial outlook on the third. 

Roads is next at Sh199 billion. Maintenance takes up the lion’s share of this budget, before rehabilitation, with new road construction at lowest budget.  Program-based results point us to a grand total of 443 kilometres in new road construction, and 2,967 kilometres in rehabilitation.  We return to the disconnect; how does this data align with road agencies (and political promises?) 

Higher education and research is our fourth largest vote at Sh143.7 billion against which the program-based metrics for 2025/26 include graduating 91,283 students from universities and placing 173,322 new students, placing another 168,507 in TVET institutions, financing 575,304 university and TVET students on loans and sponsoring 500,216 students.  Reality check needed? 

Basic education follows at Sh127.6 billion.  Selected metrics include enrolment of 6.9 million children in primary school and 3.3 million children in public secondary schools and junior secondary schools.  In addition, providing school meals to 2.8 million vulnerable learners.  

At 127.1 billion, the national police service is the sixth largest vote in 2025/26.  Reducing the crime rate to 100 in every 100,000 (or 50,000 annual crimes from 101,220 in 2024) is their BETA-aligned target, while recruiting 10,000 and training of up to 30,000 officers. Noticeably, all of their other metrics are coverage-focused (percentage of) rather than service delivery oriented. 

Housing and urban development follows in seventh at 123.8 billion, of which over Sh90 billion is earmarked towards its “delivery of affordable and social housing units” sub-programme. Note that housing levy collections in 2025/26 are targeted at Sh95 billion (from Sh65 billion in the current year). Intriguingly, there is no target set for the number of houses to be done, but there is one for potential home owners registered on the Boma Yangu platform, which is set at 598,800. 

The National Treasury will receive the eight highest vote in 2025/26 at Sh111.9 billion, including Sh32 billion Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) and almost Sh10 billion each for the Equalisation Fund and an “African Union and Other International Organisations” Fund.  Owing to its multiple functions, it’s program-based metrics range from KRA’s collection performance to the absorption rate of donor funds.  Is Treasury now an over-established mélange of pure treasury work (finance), non-strategic work planning and budgeting and financial management (accounting)? 

The ninth and final vote above Sh100 billion is that of Medical Services at Sh105.9 billion, including Sh45 billion for national referral services (hospitals) and Sh28 billion for social protection in health (including the Primary Health Care Fund; Emergency, Chronic and Critical Illness Fund and the Digital Health Authority (DHA).

Lest we forget, our universal health care financing model is still incomplete. 2025/26 targets under the social protection (UHC) part if this vote include 126,725 indigent households supported by Taifacare, 100 per cent financial support to all under the two funds above, and the digitalisation of 105 primary health care networks under DHA. 

Energy rounds off the top 10 with a vote of Sh63.5 billion. Its key customer metrics for 2025/26 include 550,000 under last-mile connectivity, 800,000 under the Kenya Green Resilient Expansion of Energy project and 480,000 customers under rural electrification. Other program targets deal with capacity expansion in generation, transmission, distribution and alternative energy sources. 

In total, these top 10 votes add up to Sh1.602 or 63 per cent of the national government vote. To offer context here, there are a total of 90 budget votes under national government. What of the next 15 in our top 25? At number 11, we have Economic Planning at Sh63 billion (including Sh58 billion in NG-CDF for our MPs), followed by National Intelligence at Sh51.4 billion, Agriculture at Sh49.8 billion, Parliament itself at Sh47.7 billion (basically excluding NG-CDF), and Transport also at Sh47.5 billion at number 15. Think of this as an order of prioritisation. 

Bringing us to our final 10. Beginning at number 16 with Water and Sanitation at Sh43.9 billion, then TVET (17) at Sh43.2 billion, Corrections (18) at Sh38.1 billion, Internal Security and National Administration (19) at Sh35.9 billion and Public Health at 20 on Sh32.2 billion. Then Petroleum (21) at Sh30.7 billion, Social Protection (22) at Sh29.3 billion, Judiciary (23) at Sh27.8 billion, Foreign Affairs (24) at Sh25.3 billion and Public Service at Sh20.4 billion. This is our Top 25! 

For the avoidance of doubt, this total leaves roughly Sh355 billion spread across the other 60-odd national government budget votes. Whatever you do with this information is entirely up to you, but two points are worthy of reflection. Does this spending hierarchy align with your own view of how and where your taxes should go? But here’s the real question – do the results we have highlighted here justify or otherwise explain the spending? That’s your real budget question!